For those games we used estimated win percentages to better represent those numbers. *Please note that some higher lines did not have enough games to qualify as significant data. Those are as follows home favorites, road favorites, road underdogs, and home underdogs. I’ve broken the data down into four charts for the four main situations. College Football Spread to Money Line Conversion Charts On the flip side, favorites of -5.5 have an advantage of -241 to -214 (expected vs. As our history shows, the actual value of 5-point favorites is only -164. As you will see, there are some situations that have been profitable, but most are not.įor example, at your typical sportsbook, a favorite of -5 would have a moneyline of -204. 3 is typically -124).Ĭomparing those numbers we can see if the bets are historically profitable.

The “actual moneyline” shows the typical line that a book would set at each spread (e.g. It’s converted from a percentage to a money line. The “expected moneyline” represents a composite outright win percentage of every game in each situation at the line given. The charts below show two different money lines. Now that you know the most basic concept of handicapping NCAA football, the question you should be asking is, “Are moneyline bets profitable?” I’ve researched over 17,000 NCAA football games to try and find the answer. How to Convert CFB Spreads to Moneylines & Calculating Value Here you would win $124 for every $100 you wager if that team wins the game outright.

A 3-point dog would likely have a line around +124. The reverse is true for when betting on an underdog. What this line says is that you must wager $151 for every $100 you want to win. A 3-point favorite is usually around -151. The risk involved is adjusted based on the betting line, or the odds of each team winning the game. This also means there is no point spread involved. If you aren’t familiar with this form of wagering, it’s simply betting on who you think will win the game outright. In the past we have talked about how to bet on NCAAF and one option is money lines.

Ncaa college football odds